The magnitude of the current outbreak of JE and Hendra-like virus has the danger of escalating into a national crisis of unprecedented proportion.   We must now all stand behind the pig farming industry, the affected families and the authorities to speedily resolve this crisis.

The present crisis if not resolved promptly can turn into a public health nightmare, a potential food crisis and pose grave dangers to the economic recovery of the country, adding further challenges to the already wounded Malaysian economic and social system.

The JE-induced crisis is not a crisis confined to one particular community or industry group in our country, the consequences will inflict the entire physical environment, social, economic and political system. As long as we live and make a living within this physical and economic system, we stand to be affected by this crisis.

Here is why it is your business:
 

• A Public Health Hazard 

The ministry of health has confirmed that out of the 48 death cases today, 19 are confirmed JE cases.  Out of the 98 cases admitted to hospital, a new strain of Hendra virus was detected in 19 of them.

In those confirmed JE cases, a new trend is detected i.e. it affected adults and not young and older people. Also in the conventional JE cases, the animal does not die; the virus only caused miscarriage to the sow and causes higher mortality among the piglets.

We have enough reason to suspect that we are dealing with a dangerous unknown. The question in front of us is if the suspicion is well founded, then the present approach health officers are adopting, i.e. defining the outbreak as JE, poses grave danger to the health of the nation.

To date there is no cure for Hendra induced infection nor vaccine against it.

Conventional JE does not made pork unsafe to eat, but what is the impact of the current suspect on pork?

Today the authorities are still ordering vaccination of animals and inoculation for humans against JE, are we risking our resources in the wrong priorities?
 

• An Inflationary Impact 

Pork makes up a large proportion of Malaysians' source of food protein. The domestic production of pork amounts to some 241,120 metric tons in 1997. This is 11% of our domestic meat source-protein production.  The pig farming industry produces an estimated RM1.2 to RM1.5 billion in value adds, with an export value of RM430 million in 1997.

Now the uncertainty given rise by the JE/Hendra virus is casting doubt on the safety of pork therefore leading to the total destruction of pigs in all the affected areas. If the authorities decide to cull all the pig population in the country to contain the epidemic, as foreign experts advocate, the food market will immediately experienced a contraction of supply of meat protein.

Poultry will be the most likely candidate for replacement. The demand for poultry has surged in recent years and Malaysia has gone from a net exporter to importer. This development will put further pressure on the import bill of the country.

The government controls poultry price. We hope the authorities will be able to keep the prices affordable in order not to fuel inflation in the country.
 

• Impact on Foreign Reserve 

The pressure to import will have a great impact on balance of payment position. All these consequences are likely result in erosion of foreign exchange revenue, which the Malaysian economy can not afford at this fragile moment of our recovery.

There are those who could argue that we can change our dietary habits, and consume more vegetarian-based proteins, but we must examine how many of such sources of protein are imported.

There is a lag time in stepping up domestic production of alternative sources of protein.  We must also remember this country is working hard to save every single dollar of foreign exchange in order to return our macro economic stability.
 

• Endangering a Fragile Recovery 

The pig farming industry generates some RM1.2 billion in value add. This could multiply into some RM12 billion of GDP, about 4.5% of Malaysia's 1998 GDP.

A food and health scare could do much harm to the social and economic system well beyond the immediate consequences described above.

If the media relations are not managed probably, the entire pig farming industry can be destroyed as a result of the revolting images of culling the pigs, leaving an indelible impression with consumers.

Concern for safety could also deter visitors and tourists to the country.

Foreign investors' confidence in the management ability of our authorities could be undermined if the crisis is not resolved speedily and safely.

We ought to remember we are still in a very fragile state of our economic recovery and we are still far from raising all the USD16 billion we require to recapitalize our financial system and stimulate our economy. We can not afford another confidence crisis at this junction.

Culling Is A Special Operation
Culling operation must be supported and executed promptly and efficiently with the right kind of expertise. While we can not put the government officials, health workers, our army and police at risks, we also have no time to waste.  Television images showing soldiers beating the pigs with wooden sticks shown overseas reflected our need for assistance.

We need special equipment and protective clothing for those who are going to engage in this dangerous operation, let's get all the help we can get.

Private sectors with equipment should come forward to support this operation. NO ONE should hold the authorities at ransom and demand high charges for renting their equipment, in fact if they can afford it, they should volunteer their services and equipment to help the country at this time of need.

The pig farmers who lost loved ones and all they have need financial support to help them through this very difficult period.

In view of the danger of the unknown new virus, experts advocate that all pigs and animals in the affected areas should be destroyed. A quick calculation of 2.5 million pigs at RM200 amounts to RM500 million.

While the Chinese community groups are chipping in to raise a welfare fund, this is an astronomical figure to achieve. The government MUST take up this responsibility as this crisis could escalate into something bigger and more costly.

We must help to resettle the farmers in order to smooth the way for the culling operation.

Moreover, as more and more information and knowledge are available on the outbreak, the authorities may have been hasty in making an indictment on the JE virus and put the blame on the pig farmers.

This situation also present challenges to the safety of the physical environment of unprecedented proportion. We need to ensure that the virus is contained, no underground water is contaminated.

Our inexperienced rescue personnel must have the wisdom to listen to experts and follow instructions strictly.

The grieving farmers have indeed been responsible. All our hearts go out to them and sympathize with their predicament. We appeal to them to do the right thing and follow the instruction of the environmental experts.

The crisis also calls for the entire community to participate in resolving the crisis.

Dear fellow Malaysians, this is not an occasion for compassion; your donation or help is not going to help the affected farmers. It goes directly to help you, making sure that you continue to enjoy affordable protein food source, and a safe and healthy living environment.

Everyone does his or her part seriously, society will be safe.
Humans called themselves the most intelligent beings on the earth, yet history is littered with unbelievable follies. The human race has to constantly face with new challenges.

In the 1950s, the flu virus took away the lives of 20 million humans. Today we may be facing the same big unknown. We need to come together as one human race to combat this new security threat -- our army and police are not protecting us from foreign enemies, they now have a new role -- help us put out virus threat. Our security personnel may need new skills and new equipment.

Fighting the JE/Hendra war is everybody's business --- for our very own individual survival, family safety and health, we must do our part. Government, professionals, community leaders, all of us.  When everyone do their part, with a keen sense of responsibility, commitment and professionalism, the crisis will be resolved.

The government has an important role, it must rise up to the occasion; both the Minister of Agriculture and Ministry of Health must take full responsibility for what happened and cleared up the mess as soon as possible.

But in the face of perceived government inaction or reluctance, the people must take their destiny in their own hands. You can help by first treating this crisis as your business and send a micro donation, no matter how small.  We need a fund to resettle the pig farmers, and have money ready to do further research to find a cure and develop a vaccine for this disease.

Malaysians must now just talk vision without sight!
We need to see the challenges right in front of our very eyes, and ACT NOW.
 
 

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Background: Pahlawan Su Chin Hock, Tseng Chow Ming and Foong Wai Fong have been counselling the pig farmers since the outbreak of the crisis. We arranged for  two Taiwanese experts to consult with the Poultry and Animal Association of Malaysia on March 12-14 1999.
Pahlawan Pat Lu put together an extensive website and key links on the viral encephalitis for the public information and education:
 

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Viral Encephalitis BattleGround

Kuala Lumpur, March 23, 1999

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